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Friday, October 1, 2021

Euro-Area Inflation Numbers to Stoke Economics Debate - Bloomberg

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Inflation numbers for the euro area due at 11 a.m. today will provide more fodder for one of the  hottest debates in economics: whether the current spike in prices is merely a temporary phenomenon or whether the tide has turned. So far, most officials have stuck to the view that the pressure will fade soon. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated this week that the central bank expects inflation to slow once pandemic-driven effects pass. But there are growing concerns among her colleagues that prices will remain elevated for longer, partly driven by persistent problems in the global supply chain. In Germany, the highest inflation reading in almost three decades is sharpening focus on wage negotiations, seen as the key test for how durable rising prices will be.

— Lyubov Pronina and Alexander Weber

What’s Happening

Energy Debate | Soaring energy prices in the EU are boosting concerns about public support for the bloc’s climate reform and reshaping agendas for key political meetings. Environment ministers will discuss the issue on Oct. 6 following Poland’s call to carefully consider its impact on the design of a planned green economic overhaul.

Google Fight | Google urged the EU’s General Court to cut or cancel a “staggering” 4.3 billion-euro antitrust fine on the grounds that it never intended to harm rivals. Commission lawyer Anthony Dawes scoffed at the search giant’s plea, saying the fine was a mere 4.5% of its revenue in 2017, well below a 10% cap.

Air Fare | Sixteen major airlines have committed to providing better information and timely reimbursement of passengers in case of flight cancellations, according to the Commission. Remaining reimbursement backlogs have been cleared in the vast majority of cases and passengers will be refunded within seven days as required under EU law.

Skills Shortfall | After the dearth of lorry drivers, lobbyists in post-Brexit Britain are warning of a  looming shortage in bankers. International hires, mostly from the EU, make up about a fifth of the 1.1 million people working in U.K. financial services, but Brexit is making it harder and more costly to lure foreign staff.

Dutch Deadlock | Seven months and numerous political reckonings, scandals and resignations later, the Dutch are back where they started.
D66 leader Sigrid Kaag removed her “political blockade” and agreed to start negotiations to form a new government with the same four parties in the previous one. It may pull Dutch politics out of the deadlock it has been in since the March election that consolidated caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte's liberal VVD as biggest party.

In Case You Missed It 

Chinese Reliance | The EU is pushing for the continent to establish its own supply of rare earths to reduce an uneasy reliance on China for the elements crucial to electric cars, wind turbines and mobile phones. A plan released Thursday calls for governments and manufacturers to support mining and processing through a mix of subsidies and sales quotas.

Corona Support | The Commission wants to phase out state support to companies next year that’s seen governments pledge or distribute some 3 trillion euros to keep businesses going during the pandemic. EU members can comment on the proposals and demand tweaks before they’re final.

Orban Challenge | Klara Dobrev, who has vowed to annul Hungary’s controversial constitution, was on track to score an upset victory in the first round of an opposition primary to decide who will challenge Viktor Orban in the election. A vice president of the European Parliament and the only woman running, Dobrev, 49, had 35% of the votes and was leading four challengers with 90% of the ballots counted.

Excess Capital | Top European banks plan to reward shareholders with at least 22.5 billion euros of excess capital built up after their regulator restricted dividends and share buybacks in the pandemic. The ECB’s controversial cap ended on Thursday and Andrea Enria, who leads its oversight arm, said he will only intervene if payments are imprudent.

Chart of the Day

European stocks have been rising for 6 consecutive quarters, but momentum is fading

European stocks eked out a sixth quarter of gains in the three-months to September, but momentum is fading. September was the worst month for the continent's equities in almost a year, as concern over rising bond yields and inflation counters optimism about the recovery.

Today’s Agenda

  • 11 a.m. Eurostat publishes preliminary euro-area September inflation data
  • 11 a.m. Germany’s Greens and FDP hold more exploratory talks on joining a coalition government as junior partners
  • EU foreign-policy chief Borrell visits Gulf states
  • EU climate chief Timmermans hosts a meeting with ministers of the High-Ambition Coalition, ahead of the pre-COP summit
  • Commission Vice President Vestager meets UN’s Guterres
  • EU energy chief Simson and Norwegian Energy Minister Bru speak at EU-Norway Energy conference in Brussels

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How are we doing? We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. Let our Brussels bureau chief know.

Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. Learn more.

— With assistance by Diederik Baazil, Aoife White, Ewa Krukowska, and Nikos Chrysoloras

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